NFL forecast: Back Packers to cover inflated line vs. Chiefs

Before Aaron Rodgers was ruled out of Sunday’s game at Kansas City in COVID-19 protocol, the streaking Packers had flipped to 1-point favorites at Circa Sports over the slumping Chiefs.

But with Jordan Love making his first career start in place of reigning NFL MVP Rodgers, Kansas City soared to a consensus 7-point favorite at Las Vegas sportsbooks and was -7½ on Friday at Caesars.

Green Bay has won and covered seven straight games. The Packers will be well-rested after their upset win at Arizona on “Thursday Night Football” and are expected to be back at full strength at wide receiver, with Davante Adams returning from COVID protocol.

The Chiefs still appear to be nursing a raging Super Bowl hangover and are working on a short week after escaping with a 20-17 home win over the Giants on Monday night to improve to 4-4. But they failed to cover the spread for the sixth time in eight games this season and are on a 4-15 spread slide overall.

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the league in interceptions (10) and tight end Travis Kelce has only one touchdown catch in his last six games.

Green Bay is in the top 10 in the NFL in defense and the Chiefs are in the bottom 10.

Jets quarterback Mike White and Cowboys QB Cooper Rush each won their first career starts last week. I’ll take the inflated line of +7½ and bet on Love and the Packers to keep it close.

Here are four more plays (home team in CAPS):

■ COWBOYS (-10) over Broncos: Dallas is the only NFL team with a perfect record ATS (7-0). I jumped on the bandwagon for the last three covers and vowed to ride ‘em Cowboys until they buck me off.

Dak Prescott is expected back to lead an explosive offense averaging 32.1 ppg against a Denver defense missing Von Miller. The Broncos are in the bottom 10 of the league in scoring (19.6 ppg) and won’t be able to keep pace with Dallas’ dynamic attack.

■ Patriots (-3½) over PANTHERS: New England has rounded into form with wins in three of its last four games. The Patriots are 3-0 on the road and take on a Carolina team that is 1-4 since a 3-0 start. Panthers QB Sam Darnold’s status is up in the air in concussion protocol, though he’s 0-3 against Bill Belichick and has been outscored 99-17 in those games.

If Darnold can’t go, Carolina will start P.J. Walker, who is 3-for-15 for 33 yards this season. New England rookie QB Mac Jones is ninth in the league in passing yards (1,996).

■ EAGLES (+1½) over Chargers: Los Angeles opened as a 3-point favorite before sharp action on Philadelphia drove the number down. I’ll follow the sharp money and back the Eagles to follow their 44-6 blowout of the Lions with their first home win of the season over a Chargers team that has lost two straight after a 4-1 start. Philadelphia should feast on LA’s league-worst rushing defense (159.6 ypga).

■ TITANS (+7½) over Rams: This is another inflated number as LA was -4 on the look-ahead line and reopened at -6½ on Sunday after Tennessee running back Derrick Henry suffered a potential season-ending injury in a win over the Colts. The line shot up to 7½ on Monday and was still there Friday at Station Casinos.

The AFC-leading Titans (6-2, 6-2 ATS) have won all four games in which they’ve been underdogs this season. I expect them to show that they’re still a force to be reckoned with without Henry.

Last week: 4-1

Season: 22-18

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.