NFL Week 5 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Scott Pritchard, PritchardsPicks.com, @Pritchardwins

Raiders (1-3) at Colts (3-1)

* Time: 10 a.m., Fox

* Line/total: Colts -6½, 48

* Analysis: The Colts’ balanced rushing and passing attack on offense has produced tremendous results, as they rank fourth in passing yards (261.0 per game) and points scored (30.8) and eighth in rushing yards (136.3). Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones is sporting a lofty 72 percent completion rate. But Raiders star defensive end Maxx Crosby will be looking to lower that average with his pressure on “Indiana Jones.” The Raiders solid rushing defense will keep this one close, but in the end, the Colts top-10 run defense and turnover advantage seal the win.

* Pick: Colts 26, Raiders 20

Vikings (2-2) at Browns (1-3)

* Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

* Line/total: Vikings -3½, 36

* Analysis: Both teams travel to London to play in England’s only stadium designed and built for NFL use. The league’s top defense in terms of total yards allowed (222.5 per game) and rushing yards allowed (70.3), the Browns will attempt to quell the comeback attempt of veteran quarterback Carson Wentz, leading a Vikings team that ranks 23rd in the league in total offense (294.0 yards). They should have success in this regard, but Cleveland will be starting rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who has thrown only four passes this season. Londoners might be up in arms over their enjoyment of this game due to lack of offense, thanks in large part to Browns defensive end Myles Garrett.

* Pick: Vikings 17, Browns 13

Cowboys (1-2-1) at Jets (0-4)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Cowboys -1½, 47

* Analysis: Aaron Glenn is attempting to avoid becoming the first Jets coach to start 0-5 in his debut season. His ally in this pursuit is an abysmal Cowboys defense, rated last in yards allowed (420.5 per game) and 31st in scoring defense (33.0 points per game allowed). But New York’s offense is near the bottom in passing (160.3 yards), which should allow the ’Boys to stymie the Jets’ stellar Breece Hall-led run game, which is third in the league with 144.5 rushing yards per game. In the end, a talented Dallas offense has its way with a mediocre Jets defense, and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones flies home with a smile on his face.

* Pick: Cowboys 27, Jets 24

Broncos (2-2) at Eagles (4-0)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Eagles -4, 43½

* Analysis: The Eagles have won 18 games in a row started by Jalen Hurts, but their offense has sputtered badly under new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo. Philadelphia has the league’s 31st-ranked passing attack (138.0 yards per game) and is 30th in total offense (251.5 yards). The Eagles have willed themselves to victory in four close games to start the season, but an engine runs on vapors for only so long. They face a Broncos team featuring the fifth-ranked rushing offense (143.3 yards) and second-ranked scoring defense (16.8 points per game allowed).

* Pick: Broncos 23, Eagles 20

Texans (1-3) at Ravens (1-3)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Texans -1½, 40½

* Analysis: My, how the mighty Ravens have fallen. But it’s easy to see the reason for Baltimore’s 1-3 predicament. Their defense has failed them at key moments of their three defeats, giving up a league-worst 33.3 points per game. The Ravens also rank next-to-last in passing defense, allowing 265.5 yards per game. But this week they get a juicy reprieve at home against a Texans offense that has mustered more than 20 points only once this season in last week’s 26-0 win over the lowly Titans. This might be the week that Ravens star running back Derrick Henry breaks loose. Four of Henry’s six 200-yard rushing games, including his career-high 250-yard performance, have come against Houston.

* Pick: Ravens 20, Texans 17

Giants (1-3) at Saints (0-4)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Saints -2, 42

* Analysis: Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler is hoping to get his first career win as a starter after an 0-10 start. He’ll be facing rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, who is making only his second NFL start and first road start after leading the Giants to an upset win over the Chargers last week. New Orleans has the league’s 10th-ranked rushing offense (124.0 yards per game), which should take advantage of New York’s 29th-ranked rushing defense (153.0 yards allowed) and grind out the victory in front of a home crowd.

* Pick: Saints 23, Giants 20

Dolphins (1-3) at Panthers (1-3)

* Time: 10 a.m.

* Line/total: Dolphins -1, 44

* Analysis: Dolphins star running back De’Von Achane should be a huge factor in this game, as he’s coming off season highs in carries (20) and rushing yards (99) in Monday’s 27-21 win over the Jets. Meanwhile, the Panthers are without starting running back Chuba Hubbard (calf injury). That puts more pressure on young Carolina quarterback Bryce Young, who has yet to live up to his hype as the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. Even without star wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Miami has enough clutch performers — the Dolphins are second in the league in third-down conversion rate (48.9 percent) — to pull out a modest victory against the struggling Panthers.

* Pick: Dolphins 24, Panthers 20

Buccaneers (3-1) at Seahawks (3-1)

* Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS

* Line/total: Seahawks -4, 44½

* Analysis: This game pits two quarterbacks against each other who were written off by their former teams but have had great success the past two seasons in Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Seattle’s Sam Darnold. Both teams feature wide receivers who were teammates at Ohio State in the Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Buccaneers rookie Emeka Egbuka. Both rushing defenses are solid, but Seattle has the distinct advantage in scoring defense, tied for second in the league with the Broncos (16.8 points allowed), which should be the difference in this game.

* Pick: Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 20

Titans (0-4) at Cardinals (2-2)

* Time: 1:05 p.m.

* Line/total: Cardinals -7½, 41

* Analysis: The Titans roll into Phoenix having lost 10 in a row and are 3-18 under coach Brian Callahan. Tennessee’s No. 1 draft pick, quarterback Cam Ward, hasn’t been terrible but his passer rating of 63.9 proves he has a long way to go. The Cardinals’ solid rushing defense (96.0 yards per game allowed) should have a banner day against a nonexistent Titans offense, which ranks last in the NFL in scoring at 12.8 points per game.

* Pick: Cardinals 23, Titans 17

Commanders (2-2) at Chargers (3-1)

* Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox

* Line/total: Chargers -3, 47

* Analysis: Jim Harbaugh, in his second season as Chargers coach, has taken the Los Angeles offense to fifth in the league in passing yards (249.0 per game) while orchestrating a defense that ranks third in the league in yards allowed (270.0). That has translated into a winning record, whereas the Commanders have struggled in both categories, ranking 25th in passing (184.3) and 24th in total defense (356.0). But Washington features the NFL’s No. 2 rushing attack (154.8) and the Chargers are precisely mediocre in rush defense (111.3 yards per game allowed), which should make this a thrilling game to watch.

* Pick: Chargers 24, Commanders 23

Lions (3-1) at Bengals (2-2)

* Time: 1:25 p.m.

* Line/total: Lions -10, 49½

* Analysis: Could the Bengals be the worst team in the league without injured star quarterback Joe Burrow? They might be, considering their last two games without him: 48-10 defeat to Vikings and 28-3 loss to Broncos. Meanwhile, the talent-laden Lions lead the league in scoring with 34.3 points per game and are building up such a head of steam on offense that not even dice-rolling coach Dan Campbell can derail them. And if he can’t stop them, please don’t expect the Bengals’ porous defense to provide much resistance.

* Pick: Lions 34, Bengals 14

Patriots (2-2) at Bills (4-0)

* Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

* Line/total: Bills -7½, 49

* Analysis: In sizing up the starting quarterbacks for these teams — Buffalo’s reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen and New England’s second-year signal caller Drake Maye — their stats are almost identical through the first four games of the season. They’ve both completed more than 70 percent of their passes and thrown for seven touchdowns with two interceptions or fewer and a passer rating of 109 and change. But on defense, the teams are polar opposites. The Bills have the NFL’s top pass defense (125.8 yards per game allowed) while the Patriots rank 26th (241.5). Buffalo’s run defense is next-to-last (164.3) while New England’s rush defense ranks second (77.5). If the Patriots had any kind of ground game, this could be close. But they don’t, and the Bills romp.

* Pick: Bills 30, Patriots 20

Chiefs (2-2) at Jaguars (3-1)

* Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN

* Line/total: Chiefs -3½, 45½

* Analysis: The Chiefs have won eight straight meetings with the Jaguars and have speedy wide receiver Xavier Worthy back to stretch the field against Jacksonville’s 24th-ranked pass defense (233.5 yards per game allowed). To make matters worse for the home team’s chances, the Jaguars are fourth-worst in the league (45.6 percent allowed) against Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ specialty — third-down conversions. The Chiefs’ 22nd-ranked rush defense (127.0) could be vulnerable to the Jaguars’ No. 4 rushing offense (144.0), keeping this one close enough to stay tuned in for the fourth quarter.

* Pick: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20