Sharp bettors take side in Pacers-Thunder NBA Finals Game 7

The NBA Finals will be decided by the two most exciting words in sports — Game 7 — for the first time since 2016 and 20th time in league history.

NBA Finals Game 7s have been close historically, with 15 of the previous 19 matchups decided by single digits and the average margin of victory 6.9 points.

Sharp bettors are banking on the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers to extend that trend Sunday. They’re backing the Pacers, who were bet down to 7½-point underdogs Friday after the line opened at 8½.

“When it started going to 8, I went to 8, and (Friday) we took some sharp play at +8 to get it down to 7½,” Westgate SuperBook NBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said.

No team has reached 100 points in Game 7 of the NBA Finals since 1988, which helps explain why the consensus total of 215 is the lowest of the series after it closed at 223 in Games 5 and 6.

“It’s just a Game 7 situation. You see that historically. You make a decent-sized adjustment when it gets to Game 7,” Sherman said. “You especially see it in Game 7 of a Stanley Cup Final and Game 7 of an NBA Finals. You have these guys focusing on defense and not playing as loose. You’ve got guys that are going to have some natural jitters and might miss shots they normally make.

“The tendency is the public looks to bet under in Game 7, even after you make the adjustment. We’ll probably have under money.”

The under is 4-2 in this year’s Finals, and each team is 3-3 against the spread.

Best bet

Systemplays.com handicapper Doug Fitz also recommends a bet on the Pacers, who whipped the Thunder 108-91 as 5-point underdogs in Game 6 on Thursday at Indiana to stave off elimination.

“The last six NBA Finals Game 7s have been decided by seven or fewer points,” said Fitz (@fitz_doug). “The Pacers have proven beyond a doubt that they can play better than the Thunder in almost every situation. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle has pushed all the right buttons and has outcoached Thunder coach Mark Daigneault.

“Smart money has moved the line down towards the Pacers for good reason. I look for the Pacers to cover and possibly win.”

Home teams have won 15 of the previous 19 NBA Finals Game 7s, though the Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Golden State Warriors 93-89 on the road in the most recent matchup in 2016.

Back to the futures

The best-case scenario for the Westgate in the futures book is Oklahoma City, which has been one of the favorites all season.

“If the Thunder just win the game, we’re in a really solid position on them in the futures,” Sherman said. “We just have a small liability on the Pacers in the futures.”

Indiana’s NBA title odds soared to 150-1 in mid-February at the Westgate, which took a $400 wager to win $60,000 and two $200 bets to win $30,000 each on the Pacers.

If Indiana, +265 on the money line in Game 7, wins the franchise’s first NBA championship, it would be the biggest preseason long shot (66-1) and longest shot entering the playoffs (80-1) ever to win it all. The Pacers would also match the 2004 Detroit Pistons (5-1) as the biggest long shots entering the NBA Finals to win, according to Sportsoddshistory.com.

“I’m surprised it went out this long, but you see it in sports if you can out-effort the other team, even a more talented team, you can win those games,” Sherman said. “The games Indiana won is by putting forth more effort. Now it will be interesting to see if Oklahoma City can match that because they really didn’t (Thursday).”

Prop report

The most popular player props will be points scored by NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32½, -115 both sides), Jalen Williams (21½, over -120) and Tyrese Haliburton (14½, over -130).

Haliburton’s total was reduced from 16½ earlier in the series after he suffered a calf injury in Game 5. The Pacers star scored 14 points in Game 6.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s points prop also has dipped from as high as 34½. The Thunder star has scored 34 or more in three games in the series, including Games 1 and 2 at home.

“I would have to think every player’s production totals would be less in a Game 7,” Sherman said.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.