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SUPER BOWL BETTING BLOG: Bad beat on Mahomes rushing prop

Updated February 2, 2020 - 7:41 pm

The wait is over. The Super Bowl of sports betting is here with, well, the Super Bowl.

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet Sunday in Super Bowl LIV in Miami Gardens, Florida.

The Chiefs are consensus 1½-point favorites at Las Vegas sportsbooks. The total is 53½, trending down over the past few days from as high as 55 after it shot up from the opener of 51½.

Join us throughout the day as we update all the action for the big game. We’ll track as many of the over a thousand available prop bets as we can, along with the live line movement on the game and anything else that pops up.

UPDATES

7:40 p.m.: That’s it for the day. Thanks for reading, and be sure to read all of our postgame coverage on reviewjournal.com.

7:36 p.m.: Mahomes won the MVP with what wasn’t a vintage performance until the fourth quarter. He was the +125 favorite to win.

7:23 p.m.: To clarify on the Mahomes bad beat: He was at 43 rushing yards, then lost 15 yards on three kneeldowns to finish with 28 yards. The prop total was anywhere from 30½ to 36½ yards.

7:13 p.m.: Oh, man. Those deep kneeldowns from Mahomes pushed his rushing yards down to 28, meaning the under 31½ cashed after he had 38 yards at one point. As bad a beat on a prop as can be.

7:10 p.m.: FINAL: Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 20. The Chiefs erased a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to rally for the win (+475 on the live line).

7:07 p.m.: Another interception, and the Chiefs are going to be Super Bowl champs.

7:o5 p.m.: There will be a lead change in the fourth quarter cashed at +230.

7:02 p.m.: That’s about it. Williams motors to the end zone from 38 yards out with 1:12 to go. Chiefs lead 31-20. Now under bettors have to sweat.

7 p.m.: The Chiefs get a stop with 1:25 left, but the 49ers still have all three timeouts.

6:48 p.m.: Wow, Williams just gets inside the pylon on a 5-yard TD pass, and the Chiefs lead 24-20 with 2:44 to go. Williams was -140 to score the TD. Chiefs now -230 on the live line (49ers +185).

6:41 p.m.: What a shift. The Chiefs force a three-and-out and will get a chance to tie or take the lead. 49ers lead 20-17 with 5:10 to play. 49ers now -140 on the live line (Chiefs +110).

6:34 p.m.: It’s not over yet. Mahomes hits Kelce for a 1-yard TD pass. 49ers lead 20-17 with 6:13 to go. 49ers now -230 on the live line (Chiefs +185). Kelce will score a TD cashes at -110.

6:32 p.m.: That will take care of Hill’s prop of 75½ yards. At seven catches for 97, so also over 5½ receptions (+130).

6:29 p.m.: 49ers are the first team to use a challenge cashes at -102.

6:26 p.m.: Mahomes’ passing props are in trouble, but he did just ease over his rushing yards prop, which was 31½ at Westgate but had been 36½ earlier today at William Hill. Mahomes at 38 yards right now.

6:20 p.m.: Our Todd Dewey wrote earlier that the books need Niners and under. Vegas looking good at the moment.

6:14 p.m.: Mahomes is intercepted again, this time off a deflection, and the 49ers are in total control, up 20-10 with 11:57 to go. 49ers now -700 on the live line (Chiefs +475), -6½ (-140) spread, total 41½.

6:10 p.m.: Catching up: A team will score three straight times cashes at -170.

6:06 p.m.: End of the third quarter, and San Francisco has taken control: 49ers 20, Chiefs 10. 49ers now -280 on the live line (Chiefs +225), spread -3½, total 45½.

6:02 p.m.: Over seven 49ers have caught a pass cashes at +130 (eight so far).

5:58 p.m.: Mostert bulls in from a yard out, and the 49ers have taken control with a 20-10 lead with 2:35 left in the third quarter. Mostert was -160 to score a TD. The 49ers were -360 as a team to have a rushing TD.

5:56 p.m.: Kendrick Bourne catches his first pass, and it’s over 10½ yards.

5:53 p.m.: Mahomes was +280 to throw an interception before throwing a touchdown pass.

5:51 p.m.: Mahomes is intercepted by Fred Warner near midfield with 5:23 left in the third quarter. 49ers now -200 on the live line (Chiefs +165), spread -3½ (+120), total 43½ (over -125).

5:45 p.m.: A field goal by either team in the third quarter was -110. Gould to make a field goal in the third quarter was +210. Still need one more field goal by either team to go over that total for the game.

5:42 p.m.: Gould makes a 42-yard field goal to put the 49ers on top 13-10 with 9:29 left in the third quarter. 49ers now -140 favorites on the live line (Chiefs +110), spread -1½, total 46½.

5:37 p.m.: Catching up: No score in the final two minutes of the first half cashed at +280.

5:36 p.m.: Deebo Samuel is the leading rusher in the game so far with 53 yards. Didn’t see a prop for that.

5:33 p.m.: Second half underway.

5:20 p.m.: Let’s check in on how the player props are looking at halftime:

Chiefs — Mahomes 304½ passing yards (104 so far), 31½ rushing yards (11); Williams 51½ rushing yards (on cusp with 47), 29½ receiving yards (11); Hill 75½ receiving yards (30); Kelce 76½ receiving yards (20).

49ers — Garoppolo 239½ passing yards (89); Mostert 72½ rushing yards (26), 13½ receiving yards (2); Kittle 74½ receiving yards (11); Samuel 54½ receiving yards (23); Sanders 41½ receiving yards (18).

5:03 p.m.: Second-half lines: pick ‘em, total 27 at William Hill; pick (Chiefs juiced to -120), 27½ at Westgate; pick (Chiefs -120), 27 at Circa; Chiefs -½ (-105), total 27 at Station.

5:01 p.m.: A long completion to Kittle gets called back for offensive pass interference and we go to halftime: 49ers 10, Chiefs 10. First-half winners: 49ers +½ (-125), even-money on the money line, total stays under 24½.

4:56 p.m.: Teams pretty content to get to halftime, 19 seconds to go. 49ers are actually favored on the live line at -125, total 47½.

4:45 p.m.: Blake Bell’s 9-yard grab cashes over 1½ yards (even) for his first reception and over 1½ (-130) for the game. The game will be tied after 0-0 cashes at -130.

4:38 p.m.: Kyle Juszczyk bulls into the end zone on a 15-yard pass, and the 49ers tie the game at 10 with 5:05 left in the second quarter. Juszczyk’s first reception goes over 5½ yards (even money) and also puts him over his receiving yardage total for the game (9½). He was 20-1 at the Westgate to score the 49ers’ first TD.

4:34 p.m.: Mostert finally gets his first carry, and it goes under 3½ yards (+120).

4:32 p.m.: Catching up: Mahomes was +290 to score a touchdown. A team will kick a field goal in the second quarter cashes at -300. Butker will make a field goal in the second quarter cashes at +110.

4:30 p.m.: Harrison Butker kicks a 31-yard field goal to put the Chiefs in front 10-3 with 9:32 left in the second quarter. Chiefs now -230 on the live line (49ers +185), spread -4½, total 50½.

4:25 p.m.: Mecole Hardman’s first catch goes under 10½ yards.

4:23 p.m.: Sammy Watkins’ first reception goes over 10½ yards, and the 28-yard catch cashes the prop for his longest catch of the game over 20½.

4:20 p.m.: Bashaud Breeland picks off Jimmy Garoppolo. He was +550 to get an interception. Garoppolo was +190 to throw an interception before he threw a TD pass.

4:19 p.m.: Mostert, who had 220 yards and four TDs in the NFC Championship Game, does not have a carry yet.

4:18 p.m.: Emmanuel Sanders first reception goes over 10½.

4:16 p.m.: End of the first quarter: Chiefs 7, 49ers 3. First-quarter winners: Chiefs -½ (+140), total pushes on 10.

4:14 p.m.: The shortest TD will be under 1½ yards cashes at -180. First TD of the game will not be a passing TD cashes at +120.

4:13 p.m.: At least Circa doesn’t have to sweat a long snapper scoring first anymore.

4:10 p.m.: It was almost Damien Williams, then it was almost Darwin Thompson, then it is Patrick Mahomes scoring the first TD of the Super Bowl on a 1-yard run. Chiefs 7, 49ers 3 with 31 seconds left in the first quarter. Mahomes was 14-1 to score first at the Westgate, 22-1 at Circa.

4:09 p.m.: A lot of first TD drama happening.

4:05 p.m.: Mahomes’ first rush will be over 4½ yards cashes at -120, but we’ll have to check the spot after the fumble to see if it’s a first down.

4:01 p.m.: Travis Kelce’s first reception goes under 10½ yards.

3:58 p.m.: Tyreek Hill’s first reception went under 12½ yards.

3:56 p.m.: Will Gould kick a field goal in the first quarter cashed at +190.

3:53 p.m.: Robbie Gould makes a 38-yard field goal, and the 49ers take a 3-0 lead with 7:57 left in the first quarter. No score in the first 6½ minutes cashes at +110. 49ers to score first cashes at -110. First field goal will be over 36½ yards cashes at -110. Either team will make a field goal in the first quarter cashes at -110. The first score of the game will be something besides a touchdown cashes at +140.

3:51 p.m.: First penalty will be on the Chiefs cashes at -120.

3:50 p.m.: Samuel had two nice runs, but his first reception goes well under 11½ yards.

3:47 p.m.: 49ers ripping off some nice gains. George Kittle goes over 10½ yards on his first catch. Deebo Samuel runs for 32 yards to smash his 12½-yard total for the game.

3:45 p.m.: 49ers get the ball, and Tevin Coleman loses a yard on first down. First carry under 3½ yards (-120). Interesting that he’s out there instead of Raheem Mostert.

3:44 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes’ first pass will be incomplete cashes at +170.

3:42 p.m.: First play is a 7-yard run by Damien Williams for the Chiefs. First rush over 3½ yards (+110 odds).

3:38 p.m.: FYI, I will be using the lines from the Westgate as of about an hour ago to grade the props. If you got a better line or price, that’s the name of the game.

3:37 p.m.: The first thing will be checking the flurry of firsts to start the game, as basically every offensive player has a line on the distance of his first rush/reception.

3:35 p.m.: The first winner of the day is … tails on the coin flip, anywhere from -105 to -102 around town depending on the kindness of the sportsbook.

3:27 p.m.: Despite a lot of media discussion, you cannot bet on the length of the national anthem in Las Vegas. Todd Dewey wrote about that this week here. (That was definitely under two minutes, though.)

3:23 p.m.: We’re closing in on kickoff. One last look around the market: Still mostly Chiefs -1½, total 53. Westgate at Chiefs -2, William Hill and CG at 1. Golden Nugget at 54 on the total; Station, Wynn and Boyd at 53½; Circa down to 52½.

Chiefs as high as -130 on the money line, low as -114 at South Point. 49ers as high as +110, as low as even-money.

2:34 p.m.: In case anyone has props involving him, 49ers running back Tevin Coleman is active, as expected, though Jeff Wilson is suiting up as the fourth running back just in case.

2:17 p.m.: Won’t do too much with the cross-sport props, but the Golden Knights’ 3-0 victory over the Nashville Predators on Saturday might have set up a few bettors well for today.

One Westgate prop had Knights shots on goals -3½ vs. Chiefs points. With 39 shots from the Knights, KC will have to get to 36 for its bettors to cash. Another prop had Marc-Andre Fleury saves -3½ vs. 49ers points. Fleury only had to make 19 saves in a dominant defensive night for Vegas, meaning 49ers backers need only 16 points to cash in.

1:30 p.m.: The Westgate has gone to Chiefs -2, but the consensus line remains Chiefs -1½, total 53½. South Point and William Hill are at Chiefs -1. CG Technology and the Golden Nugget have the total at 54, and Circa Sports and Treasure Island are at 53.

As for the money line, the Chiefs are as high as -135 at CG and the Westgate and as low as -116 at South Point. The 49ers are as high as +115 at CG and the Westgate and as low as even-money at several books around town.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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