Over or under? RJ reporters make picks on Golden Knights

Review-Journal hockey writers Ben Gotz, Adam Hill and David Schoen and columnist Ed Graney make over/under predictions on 10 Golden Knights questions for the 2019-20 season.

POINTS BY GOLDEN KNIGHTS

103.5

Ben Gotz

Under

This is a lofty total and doesn’t give the Knights much margin for error. They still can have a successful season and go under.

Ed Graney

Under

The over would mean more than a 10-point increase from a season ago. The roster isn’t that much better.

Adam Hill

Under

Projected their final total at 102, so we’ll give a slight lean to the under.

David Schoen

Under

This feels like a high number, especially with the increased parity across the league. Only four teams went over that total last season, and points will be harder to come by in an improved Pacific Division.

MARK STONE GOALS

31.5

Ben Gotz

Under

Stone scored 33 last season, seven over his previous career high, while trying to lift a woeful Ottawa Senators team. He doesn’t need to shoulder the scoring load as much with the Knights.

Ed Graney

Under

Who do they think this guy is, Nikita Gusev?

Adam Hill

Under

Stone had 33 combined goals last season, the first time in his career he has surpassed 30. He should thrive on a line with Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty for a full season, but this number is a big ask.

David Schoen

Over

Stone surpassed this total for the first time in his five full NHL seasons when he combined for 33 goals with Ottawa and the Knights. But he’s taking more shots now than he did earlier in his career, which naturally leads to more goals.

WILLIAM KARLSSON GOALS

24.5

Ben Gotz

Over

Expect a carefree and productive Karlsson now that he’s locked up long term. His durability also makes this a much safer bet.

Ed Graney

Over

Do you know what the security of a long-term deal worth millions of dollars buys a guy, other than really cool stuff? A hockey existence of only on-ice focus.

Adam Hill

Under

Karlsson came crashing back to earth last season when he scored 24 after the anomaly of his 43-goal campaign two years ago. While he should have the pressure of playing for a contract alleviated, he played all 82 games again last season and any kind of absence would make it difficult to reach this mark.

David Schoen

Over

Now that he’s not playing for a long-term contract, a relaxed Karlsson should surpass last season’s output of 24 goals. Besides, his long hair is back. That’s a sure sign he’s in for a big season, right?

JONATHAN MARCHESSAULT GOALS

24.5

Ben Gotz

Over

This is a number Marchessault is plenty capable of hitting. He went over last season despite his shooting percentage (9.0) being 1.9 percent below his career average.

Ed Graney

Over

The chip on his shoulder alone from what he thought was a subpar 2018-19 should be enough to go over for a guy who not long ago scored 30 in a season for Florida.

Adam Hill

Over

Marchessault has exceeded this total three straight seasons and will have plenty of scoring opportunities again, even though his goal totals have dipped each of the past three seasons.

David Schoen

Over

I don’t feel good about this one because Marchessault could spend most of his time feeding William Karlsson and Reilly Smith (or maybe Mark Stone). But he’s gone over this number in three consecutive seasons.

REILLY SMITH POINTS

55.5

Ben Gotz

Under

Smith has proven to be a great complement to William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault on the first line. His dirty work isn’t always rewarded on the stat sheet, though.

Ed Graney

Under

He only reached the number once in the last six seasons, and when you think about how softball was on his mind over the summer, he might try to field a few pucks rather than pass them.

Adam Hill

Over

Smith got to 53 points last season in a campaign in which the top line struggled at times to break through the increased defensive attention. A full season with a potent second line should help free Smith to surpass that total.

David Schoen

Under

The schedule ends in an even year, which means Smith is due for another 20-goal campaign. Regardless, the winger has fallen short of this point total in all but one of his six full NHL seasons.

MAX PACIORETTY GOALS

27.5

Ben Gotz

Over

Call me crazy, but I’m buying that a more comfortable Pacioretty will shine in his second year with the Knights. A full season with linemates Paul Stastny and Mark Stone will help, too.

Ed Graney

Under

At this point, Montreal has won the Pacioretty trade — we see you, Tomas Tatar — and the fact injuries have found Pacioretty in consecutive seasons doesn’t create faith in the over.

Adam Hill

Over

Pacioretty has talked about how much more comfortable he feels this season after using last year to get acclimated to a new locker room and city for the first time in his career. He has looked rejuvenated in training camp.

David Schoen

Under

A healthy Pacioretty could easily surpass this total with Mark Stone and Paul Stastny looking to tee him up. Healthy is the key word. He hasn’t played more than 66 games in either of the past two seasons.

PAUL STASTNY POINTS

57.5

Ben Gotz

Under

Stastny could get here if he plays all 82 games with the Knights. But he’s played 75 or more in only four of his 13 NHL seasons.

Ed Graney

Under

If you’re sensing a trend about his durability at age 33, you’re right. That’s a lot of points for a guy who hasn’t reached 70 games in three of the last four seasons.

Adam Hill

Under

He will be in position to reach this number playing on that second line with Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. But Stastny has played more than 66 games only once in the last four years.

David Schoen

Under

Stastny hasn’t reached 60 points since 2013-14, though he was on pace last season after missing three months with a knee injury. He should pick up plenty of assists alongside Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, though.

ALEX TUCH POINTS

47.5

Ben Gotz

Under

Tuch slumped toward the end of last season after being placed on the third line. The opportunities just might not be there for him to go over.

Ed Graney

Over

This is the toughest of all, because so much of Tuch’s production depends on who he’s skating with on a given night. But he had 52 points last season and is only getting better.

Adam Hill

Under

Tuch got extended looks on the second line last season and accumulated a career-high 52 points. But his ice time might take a hit this season, causing him to fall short even if he continues his impressive development.

David Schoen

Under

The 23-year-old winger notched a career-high 52 points in his second full season, as he was featured in a top-six role before the trade deadline. Barring injury, Tuch will skate on the third line and see fewer scoring opportunities.

MARC-ANDRE FLEURY WINS

31.5

Ben Gotz

Under

I’m not sure it’s a good thing for the Knights if Fleury reaches this number. This season seems like a good time to ease back his workload.

Ed Graney

Over

Given the entire organization breaks out into a deep sweat on nights Malcolm Subban plays, I would think Fleury again will be overused enough to go over the number.

Adam Hill

Under

Fluery and the team continue to insist his late-season issues weren’t workload related, but it’s almost certain they will try to find ways to get the soon-to-be 35-year-old more rest this season.

David Schoen

Under

Had Fleury not been injured in March, he might have led the league in games played. It’s probably in the Knights’ best interest to lighten his workload, making it harder to duplicate last season’s 35 wins.

PACIFIC DIVISION FINISH

1.5

Ben Gotz

Over

The Knights justifiably should believe they can win the Pacific this season. But, as a betting man, give me the field.

Ed Graney

Over

Forget about Calgary and San Jose, both of which could finish ahead of the Knights again. Arizona is improved enough to where it will steal points from the top three. Second place for the Knights.

Adam Hill

Over

This is hypocritical because I picked them to win the division, but given a yes-no option on whether they win the division, I’ll lean to the no.

David Schoen

Under

Flip a coin between the Knights, Calgary and San Jose for the division crown. It should come down to the final week of the season, but I think the Knights will win their second banner in three seasons.

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