Rams biggest wild-card favorites in ‘way more wide open’ NFL playoffs

One of the most wide-open NFL postseason fields in years is set and the Seahawks and Rams are the top two favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Los Angeles, the +430 second choice to win the NFL title, is the biggest favorite on super wild-card weekend. The Rams are 10-point road favorites in Saturday’s wild-card opener over the Panthers, who upset L.A. 31-28 on Nov. 30 as 10-point home underdogs.

“I still think the Rams may be the best team in the NFC but they’ve kind of limped into the postseason,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “It’s not going to stun me to see a couple surprises playing in February. I don’t think anybody had the Seahawks and Broncos penciled in at No. 1 (seeds) or the Bears and Patriots penciled in at No. 2.

“It’s way more wide open than last year.”

The Broncos are the +650 third choice to win it all, followed by the Eagles and Patriots at 9-1, the Bills (10-1), Texans (12-1) and Jaguars (14-1). The Bears are 21-1, followed by the Niners (22-1), Packers (23-1), Chargers (30-1), Steelers (55-1) and Panthers (150-1).

Wild-card lines

The Bears are 1½-point home favorites over the Packers on Saturday night in a rematch of Chicago’s 22-16 home win over Green Bay in Week 16.

“We expect to need the Rams and Packers to falter in round one and expect there to be more handle on the NFC side of the playoffs for the first round,” Caesars head of football Joey Feazel said.

In the other NFC matchup, the Eagles are 3½-point home favorites over the 49ers on Sunday.

“It’s a tough task for San Francisco, which was one game away from having every game at home and sleeping in their beds,” Esposito said. “They’re really beat up defensively. The Eagles remind me of that sleeping giant. It’s not going to stun me if they’re playing in the Super Bowl.”

In the AFC on Sunday, the Bills are 1½-point road favorites over the Jaguars and the Patriots are 3½-point home favorites over the Chargers.

“I think the public will be on the Bills as a small favorite. The Patriots and Eagles will be popular in parlays,” Westgate SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said. “There are a lot of small spreads so that will be really good for handle.”

The Texans are 3-point road favorites over the Steelers on “Monday Night Football” to cap off the weekend.

NFL Week 18 recap

Favorites went 7-9 against the spread in NFL Week 18. But double-digit favorites went 6-0 ATS, including the Vikings (-12½), who beat the Packers 16-3 (though the line closed at 13 or higher at multiple books).

The other double-digit favorites that covered were the Bills (-13, beat Jets 35-8), Broncos (-15, beat Chargers 19-3), Jaguars (-13, beat Titans 41-7), Patriots (-14½, beat Dolphins 38-10) and Rams (-14½, beat Cardinals 37-20).

“Every one of them rolled in,” Boomer’s Sportsbook director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. “It was a good morning, just not a good afternoon.”

One of the best results for the books was the Saints (+4½) burning Falcons bettors with a dreaded backdoor cover when Tyler Shough threw a 16-yard touchdown pass to Ronnie Bell with 1:11 left in New Orleans’ 19-17 loss.

Other teams that pulled off outright upsets in Week 18 were the Browns (+9½, beat Bengals 20-18), Commanders (+3½, beat Eagles 24-17), Giants (+3, beat Cowboys 34-17), Steelers (+4½, beat Ravens 26-24) and Raiders (+3½), who beat the Chiefs 14-12 on Daniel Carlson’s 60-yard field goal with eight seconds left but still clinched the top pick in the NFL draft thanks to the Giants’ win.

“The Raiders are officially on the clock,” Esposito said.

Circa Survivor

Five entries finished 20-0 to win the Circa Survivor contest and split the record $18.7 million prize, collecting $3.7 million each. Two survived on the Vikings, including Palo Verde High School graduate and UNLV nursing student Fernanda Carriedo.

The other winning picks were the Patriots, Falcons and Jaguars.

One unfortunate entry was eliminated by the Bengals in painful fashion. Cincinnati trailed the Browns the entire second half until taking an 18-17 lead on Joe Burrow’s 4-yard touchdown pass to Ja’Marr Chase with 1:29 left. But that was enough time for Cleveland quarterback Shedeur Sanders to direct a 40-yard drive to set up Andre Szmyt’s game-winning 49-yard field goal as time expired — and the other entries cheered at the Circa sportsbook as they won an additional $600,000 each.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.