Updated November 2, 2020 - 11:48 am
A bettor placed a $1.29 million wager on Joe Biden to win the presidential election on United Kingdom-based Betfair Exchange.
The bet, which was placed at odds of -187, was the largest political bet ever placed on Betfair Exchange. It will pay $697,000 if the former vice president beats President Donald Trump, whose odds moved from +200 to +188 over the weekend.
Betting favorites are expressed with a minus sign and underdogs with a plus sign. In this case, a bettor would have to wager $187 to win $100 on Biden or $100 to win $188 on Trump.
A total of $350 million has been wagered on the 2020 election at Betfair Exchange (betfair.com), breaking the record $258 million bet on the 2016 presidential election between Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Betfair projects that more than $516 million will be bet on Tuesday’s election in what already is the biggest betting event in the history of the company.
“The big money is coming for Biden because people get more confident at the end of an election about the state of the market and the big hitters enter,” professional political bettor and Betfair election expert Paul Krishnamurty said in an email. “A total of ($516 million) bet is well within range and that represents a 12-fold increase in two election cycles. That has to be the Trump effect. He’s changed the game.”
Trump’s odds of +188 equate to a 35 percent chance of winning, while Biden’s -187 equates to a 65 percent chance of winning.
By comparison, Trump’s average odds the day before polls opened in 2016 were +450 — which equate to an 18 percent chance of winning — and he hit a high of 9-1 (10 percent), according to Betfair, while Hillary Clinton’s odds were -500 (83 percent).
At William Hill sportsbook in the United Kingdom, Biden was holding steady Monday at -180 and Trump was +150. At offshore book Pinnacle, Biden was -200 and Trump +175.
Also at Pinnacle, Biden was a heavy -392 favorite to win the electoral college vote in Nevada, and Trump was +298.
Betting on the election is illegal in the U.S.