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NFL betting breakdown: Divisional playoffs

Updated January 20, 2023 - 1:42 pm

BETTING BREAKDOWN

This week’s handicapper: Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com, @fitz_doug

Jaguars (10-8) at Chiefs (14-3)

Time: 1:30 p.m. Saturday, KSNV-3

Line/total: Chiefs -9, 53

Analysis: The spread moved down to 8½ when money came in on the Jaguars and stayed there for most of the week. That was for good reason. The Chiefs have a tendency to score early and relax later, giving their opponents the opportunity to cover what is usually an overinflated spread.

By the numbers: Kansas City has been favored in 14 of its 17 games. The Chiefs are 5-9 ATS as favorites and 5-11-1 ATS overall this season. … Jacksonville is 8-5 ATS as an underdog and 4-5 ATS on the road.

Pick: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24

Giants (10-7-1) at Eagles (14-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Saturday, KVVU-5

Line/total: Eagles -7½, 48

Analysis: I’ve had success riding the Giants as underdogs, and I’m not stopping here. New York’s Daniel Jones finally looks like a capable NFL quarterback. Giants running back Saquon Barkley is running better than he did before he suffered a torn ACL in the 2020 season. New York coach Brian Daboll should be the league’s Coach of the Year.

By the numbers: The Giants are an NFL-best 14-4 ATS this season, including 11-2 ATS as underdogs and 7-1 ATS as road underdogs. … The Eagles are 8-9 ATS overall and 6-3 ATS in home games. … Philadelphia went 3-3 ATS against NFC East division foes.

Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 21

Bengals (13-4) at Bills (14-3)

Time: 12:05 p.m. Sunday, KLAS-8

Line/total: Bills -5½, 49

Analysis: This should be a slugfest. Both teams are used to cold weather, so that shouldn’t be an issue. Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow are arguably the top two quarterbacks in the league next to Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. The difference should come down to the Bills’ superior offense.

By the numbers: The Bengals are tied for the second-best spread record in the league at 12-5 ATS. … Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS as an underdog or pick’em. … The Bills are 8-8-1 ATS, all as favorites. But Buffalo is 3-5 ATS at home.

Pick: Bills 24, Bengals 21

Cowboys (13-5) at 49ers (13-4)

Time: 3:35 p.m. Sunday, KVVU-5

Line/total: 49ers -4, 46½

Analysis: This could be another slugfest, but the 49ers’ league-best defense will be the difference. San Francisco rookie quarterback Brock Purdy has played only nine games, but he looks as polished as a 10-year veteran. The combination of 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Deebo Samuel should carry San Francisco past a good Dallas defense.

By the numbers: Dallas is 4-4-1 ATS on the road and 10-7-1 ATS overall. … San Francisco is 8-2 ATS at home and 12-6 ATS overall.

Pick: 49ers 31, Cowboys 23

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