NFL betting breakdown: Week 12
SixthSenseSports.com handicapper Scott Kellen analyzes every NFL Sunday and Monday game, with trends and final scores for each.
Titans (8-3) at Patriots (7-4)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Patriots -7, 43½
Analysis: Tennessee injuries are starting to pile up, with wide receiver Julio Jones already out and now wideout A.J. Brown out as well. On defense, the Titans lost linebacker Bud Dupree and have other injury concerns at linebacker and in the secondary. Meanwhile, the Patriots are getting healthier each week. New England’s defense should provide plenty of issues for a banged-up Tennessee offense, while the Pats’ offense should get chunks of yards in their passing game.
By the numbers: Tennessee is 26th in lowest sack percentage allowed, while the Patriots are sixth-best in pressure rate, so Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill figures to be under pressure all day. … New England is third-best in the league in generating pass plays of 20+ yards while Tennessee is dead last in generating big pass plays.
Pick: Patriots 27, Titans 17
Jets (2-8) at Texans (2-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -2½, 44½
Analysis: Zach Wilson gets the start at QB for the Jets for the first time since Week 7. Tyrod Taylor gets the start again for Houston and is 2-2 in his four starts for the Texans. The Jets sport the league’s worst pass defense while Houston isn’t too far behind at No. 27.
By the numbers: New York is 2-11 ATS as a road underdog and has allowed 24 points or more in 11 of those 13 games. … Houston has scored 21 points or more in three of Taylor’s four starts and 22 points or more in three of their four home games.
Pick: Texans 24, Jets 21
Eagles (5-6) at Giants (3-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -3½, 45½
Analysis: The Giants have a new offensive coordinator in Freddie Kitchens. Don’t expect a lot to change with this New York offense, but there are likely to be a few new wrinkles that may help it this week. The Giants have been competitive at home this season against the average to below-average teams, with wins over the Panthers and Raiders and a three-point loss to Atlanta. Philadelphia has won three of four games, but the wins were against winless Detroit, a Denver team that was missing four offensive linemen and the Saints, who are extremely banged up.
By the numbers: The Giants are 6-16 ATS as home underdogs but have won their last two games outright in that role over Carolina and the Raiders. … New York is on a 14-7-1 under streak as a home underdog.
Pick: Giants 24, Eagles 23
Buccaneers (7-3) at Colts (6-5)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Buccaneers -3, 53½
Analysis: Indianapolis has won three straight and five of six heading into a big showdown against Tampa Bay. The Colts are finally getting healthy and it’s starting to show as they dominated the Bills in last week’s 41-15 win in Buffalo. But the Colts’ eighth-ranked rushing offense will face the Bucs’ top-ranked rushing defense that might have Vita Vea back at nose tackle. Vea and linebacker Devin White will be game-time decisions. Tampa Bay is tops in the league in lowest sack percentage allowed while the Colts are just No. 30 in pressure rate on the QB, so Tom Brady should have time to throw the ball.
By the numbers: The Bucs are 0-5 ATS as road favorites this season and 0-3 ATS vs. winning teams. … Road favorites coming off a home win where they allowed 10 points or less are 179-253-9 ATS. Home underdogs off a road win vs. a road team off a home win are 75-40-1 ATS.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Colts 26
Falcons (4-6) at Jaguars (2-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -2, 45½
Analysis: Atlanta has lost its last two games by 40 and 25 points. With wideout Calvin Ridley sidelined, the Falcons badly need running back/receiver Cordarrelle Patterson to return. He’s questionable. Jacksonville ranks No. 9 in lowest sack percentage allowed, while Atlanta is No. 31 in pressure rate so Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence should have a chance to make some plays. Jacksonville also has a chance to run the ball with their No. 13 rushing offense against Atlanta’s No. 26 rushing defense. If Patterson doesn’t play, that will greatly limit the Falcons’ offense and Jacksonville will have a great chance for the win.
By the numbers: The Jaguars haven’t scored more than 19 points in their last seven games as home underdogs. … Teams coming off a home loss of 24 points or more (Atlanta) are on a 62-26-2 under streak, including 7-2 this season.
Pick: Jaguars 22, Falcons 21
Panthers (5-6) at Dolphins (4-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Panthers -2½, 42
Analysis: Miami is riding a three-game winning streak and another win here — with games against the Giants, Jets and banged-up Saints the next three weeks — would give the Dolphins a chance to still make the playoffs. Miami has done it with its defense, limiting its last three opponents to 17 points or lesss. The Dolphins will face a Panthers team with QB Cam Newton now leading the way and a Carolina defense that is No. 2 in the league in pressure rate. The Panthers had their best offensive game, measured by success rate, behind Newton in last week’s loss to Washington. Miami will try to confuse Newton with blitzes like they did to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson in a 22-10 victory.
By the numbers: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 6-1 ATS in his career at home in games in which he’s played at least 40 percent of the snaps. The only ATS loss was a 30-28 setback to Atlanta this season as a 1½-point underdog.
Pick: Panthers 21, Dolphins 20
Steelers (5-4) at Bengals (6-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bengals -3½, 44
Analysis: Pittsburgh’s defense should rebound this week if it gets back linebacker T.J. Watt, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and cornerback Joe Haden, who all missed last week’s shootout loss to the Chargers. Watt and Fitzpatrick are expected to play, while Haden is questionable. The ability of those three to help in coverage and rush the passer for a Steelers defense that is No. 14 in pressure rate should spell plenty of trouble for Bengals QB Joe Burrow and a Cincinnati squad that ranks No. 28 in sack percentage allowed.
By the numbers: The Bengals are 1-4 ATS as home favorites under coach Zac Taylor. … The Steelers are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs.
Pick: Bengals 23, Steelers 20
Chargers (6-4) at Broncos (5-5)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Chargers -2½, 47
Analysis: The Broncos are coming off their bye week and might get Bradley Chubb back. The linebacker will be a game-day decision. Los Angeles is dead last in the league in rushing defense, so Denver should find success running the ball and opening up play action down the field with its wide receivers. The Chargers have won just one game by more than six points this season, so a Denver teaser is in play here as well.
By the numbers: Eight of 11 Chargers road games with QB Justin Herbert have totaled 50 points or more, including a 61-point shootout in Denver last season. The Broncos won, 31-30.
Pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 23
Vikings (5-5) at 49ers (5-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -3½, 49
Analysis: Minnesota lost edge rusher Danielle Hunter a few weeks ago. The Vikings also will play this game without edge rusher Everson Griffen (non-football illness list), which means they will be missing their top two sack leaders and pressure rate leaders. Along with Minnesota’s No. 30 rushing defense, the Vikings could have problems stopping San Francisco. The hope for Minnesota is its No. 2 offense, which allows the lowest sack percentage, vs. a 49ers defense that ranks No. 24 in pressure rate.
By the numbers: Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is 18-10-1 ATS as a nondivisional road dog while Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is 0-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Pick: 49ers 25, Vikings 22
Rams (7-3) at Packers (8-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Rams -2, 47
Analysis: Green Bay is still without All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and center Josh Myers and also lost left guard Elgton Jenkins, who was filling in for Bakhtiari. The Packers also will be without cornerback Kevin King, which tests their depth in the secondary. The Rams are set to show off their pair of new shiny pieces in edge rusher Von Miller and receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
By the numbers: Under coach Sean McVay, the Rams are 3-6 straight up on the road against teams that made the playoffs that season. … With Aaron Rodgers starting, Green Bay hasn’t lost a game at home by more than seven points since 2017. The Packers getting more than seven points in a teaser is a good bet.
Pick: Rams 27, Packers 26
Browns (6-5) at Ravens (7-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Ravens -3, 47
Analysis: This is a huge divisional matchup. Cleveland will have a bye after this game and then face the Ravens again in their first game following their bye week. The Browns are getting healthy with right tackle Jack Conklin and running back Kareem Hunt back. That gives the Browns their two-headed monster at running back with Hunt and Nick Chubb, who played together the first five weeks of the season. Cleveland totaled 26 points or more in four of its five games with that duo.
By the numbers: Baltimore is 3-9 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less with QB Lamar Jackson starting. But the Ravens have scored 20 points or more in 11 of those 12 games. … Cleveland has allowed 33 points or more in seven of its last eight games as a road underdog. The Browns have scored 29 points or more in five of those eight games.
Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 26
Seahawks (3-7) at Washington (4-6)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Pick’em, 46½
Analysis: Seattle has lost five of its last six games, with its only win over Jacksonville. The Seahawks have scored a total of 13 points since QB Russell Wilson returned. They now face a Washington team that has won two in a row and is getting its offense healthy with 29- and 27-point efforts the last two weeks.
By the numbers: Washington ranks No. 7 in rushing offense, while Seattle ranks No. 27 in rushing defense. … Seattle has the No. 31 passing defense and Washington is No. 30 in passing defense, so plenty of points could be scored in this game.
Pick: Washington 27, Seahawks 24