NFL betting breakdown — Week 17
Raiders (7-8) at Broncos (6-9)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Broncos -3½, 40½
Analysis: The Raiders will enter the game as longshots to make the playoffs, but they are alive. They’re likely to be missing key OL Richie Incognito and RB Josh Jacobs, but QB Derek Carr has enjoyed considerable success against the Broncos. Denver has won four of its last five home games and is getting a real spark from rookie QB Drew Lock.
By the numbers: The Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory. … The Broncos have covered six of their last eight games.
Pick: Raiders 21, Broncos 16
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Chargers (5-10) at Chiefs (11-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Chiefs -9, 45½
Analysis: The Chiefs have allowed fewer than 10 points per game during their current five-game winning streak. The Chargers are minus-13 in turnovers in their last six games, with Philip Rivers throwing interceptions in bunches.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games, including a straight up win at Arrowhead Stadium in their last visit to Kansas City. … The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up and ATS in their last six Week 17 games.
Pick: Chiefs 33, Chargers 10
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Browns (6-9) at Bengals (1-14)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Browns -3, 43
Analysis: The Bengals clinched the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL draft with their OT loss at Miami last week so they can win here with impunity. When the teams played in Week 14, Cincinnati outgained Cleveland by more than 100 yards but lost 27-19 thanks to red zone inefficiency and an Andy Dalton pick six. NFL leading rusher Nick Chubb could have a huge game against the NFL’s worst run defense.
By the numbers: This is the fifth time this year that the Browns have been road favorites — more times than in their 10 previous seasons combined. … The Browns enter Week 17 on an 0-5 road ATS run.
Pick: Bengals 21, Browns 20
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Bears (7-8) at Vikings (10-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bears -3½, 36
Analysis: The Vikings are locked into the No. 6 seed, so they probably will rest many key players in preparation for the playoffs. Sean Mannion is set to get his second career start at quarterback. But it’s not like the Bears have played inspired football down the stretch.
By the numbers: The Vikings haven’t lost consecutive games all season, and haven’t lost back-to-back home games since 2016. … Minnesota is 25-9-1 ATS when coming off a loss in the Mike Zimmer era including a 4-0 ATS mark in that role this year.
Pick: Vikings 13, Bears 9
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Falcons (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Pick, 47
Analysis: The Falcons won and covered three straight last season after getting eliminated from playoff contention. They are looking for a fourth consecutive win after getting eliminated this season. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston is on track to lead the NFL in passing yards and interceptions, both by wide margins.
By the numbers: The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. … The Buccaneers haven’t lost ATS since before Thanksgiving.
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 30
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Saints (12-3) at Panthers (5-10)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Saints -13½, 45
Analysis: The Saints can clinch a first-round bye with a win, but they need help — a loss by Green Bay or San Francisco. Only three of the Saints’ 12 wins have come by enough of a margin to cover this point spread, and Sean Payton must manage his squad as if it will have to play next week. Carolina has only lost one home game by more than one score all season.
By the numbers: The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on grass, but the underdog in 10-1 ATS in the last eleven games in the series. … The over has cashed in five of the last six matchups.
Pick: Saints 30, Panthers 19
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Jets (6-9) at Bills (10-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Pick, 36½
Analysis: The Bills already have clinched the No. 5 playoff seed in the AFC, so they’ll play on the road next week, leaving this week’s game with the Jets as a true “throwaway.” The Jets certainly haven’t forgotten how the Bills rallied from behind in the fourth quarter and stole the win in their Week 1 matchup.
By the numbers: The underdog has won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams. … The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 division games.
Pick: Jets 17, Bills 14
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Dolphins (4-11) at Patriots (12-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -16½, 45
Analysis: The Patriots will clinch the No. 2 seed with a victory or a Chiefs loss. They’ve been dominant in their regular-season home finale, wining by 17 or more points the last four seasons. Miami lost its first four games by 20 or more points, but hasn’t lost by more than 17 since.
By the numbers: The Dolphins are the first team since the 2016 Browns (a 1-15 squad) to be underdogs in all 16 regular season-games. … The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games at New England.
Pick: Patriots 35, Dolphins 14
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Packers (12-3) at Lions (3-11-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Packers -12½, 43½
Analysis: During their current four-game winning streak, the Packers defense ranks among the top 3 in the NFL in points allowed, yards per play and interceptions. That’s bad news for a Lions team that has lost eight straight, the last three coming by double-digit margins.
By the numbers: Over the last three seasons, the Lions are 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS against Green Bay. … The Packers’ last eight division matchups have gone under the total.
Pick: Packers 26, Lions 18
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Redskins (3-12) at Cowboys (7-8)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Cowboys -12½, 46
Analysis: The Cowboys defense isn’t creating turnovers, having notched 15 takeaways this season. Six of their seven wins this season have come by double-digit margins — it’s the close games where Dallas has struggled. The Redskins have played competitive football in recent weeks and haven’t lost a game by more than 10 points since mid-November.
By the numbers: Dallas is 8-1 to the over in their last nine games following a straight up loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record. … Washington is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Redskins 17
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Eagles (8-7) at Giants (4-11)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Eagles -3½, 45
Analysis: The Eagles have a cluster of injuries at cornerback, bad news against Giants QB Daniel Jones, who is coming off a five TD performance last week. All the pressure here is on the road favorite coming off three straight division tilts. TE Zack Ertz the latest Philadelphia pass catcher to go down to injury. The Giants have some positive momentum: two straight wins and four covers in their last five games.
By the numbers: The Giants are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. … The Eagles are 7-1 to the under in their last eight games coming off an ATS win.
Pick: Giants 26, Eagles 24
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Steelers (8-7) at Ravens (13-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Steelers -2, 36½
Analysis: The Ravens will be resting some starters, including MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, leaving Robert Griffin III to start at quarterback. Pittsburgh has had the least productive offense in the NFL down the stretch, scoring only eight offensive touchdowns in its last seven games.
By the numbers: Pittsburgh has won every Week 17 game since 2008, the longest streak in the NFL.
Pick: Ravens 14, Steelers 13
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Colts (7-8) at Jaguars (5-10)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Colts -6, 42
Analysis: Indianapolis ran for 264 yards against the Jaguars in a blowout win in Week 11, and Jacksonville’s run defense hasn’t exactly gotten better. The Jaguars have lost six of their last seven games, with each defeat by at least a dozen points. Their last three home losses have come by a combined margin of 106-34.
By the numbers: The Jaguars are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Colts. … Jacksonville is 4-0 straight up and ATS at home against Indianapolis in the past four seasons.
Pick: Colts 28, Jaguars 16
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Cardinals (5-9-1) at Rams (8-7)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Rams -6½, 45
Analysis: Kyler Murray is officially a game-time decision, so there’s a decent chance that Brett Hundley will start at QB. The drop off from Murray to Hundley is worth something in the range of four to five points. The Rams’ motivation is very much in question following back-to-back losses that have eliminated them from playoff contention.
By the numbers: Arizona is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight road games, and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. … The Rams are 4-0 ATS following their last four straight up losses.
Pick: Rams 21, Cardinals 19
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Titans (8-7) at Texans (10-5)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Titans -6½, 44
Analysis: The Titans control their playoff destiny: win and they’re in. Tennessee is out revenge for a Week 15 home loss to the Texans, a game that turned on an 88-yard Whitney Mercilus interception return. The Texans have clinched the division, but could move up to the No. 3 seed in the AFC with a win and a Chiefs loss.
By the numbers: The Titans are 8-1 to the over in their last nine games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven tries on the road against an opponent with a winning record. … The Texans are 7-1 to the under in their last eight divisional games and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings with Tennessee.
Pick: Titans 31, Texans 13
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49ers (12-3) at Seahawks (11-4)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/Total: 49ers -3½, 45½
Analysis: The Seahawks were missing six defensive starters and starting left tackle Duane Brown in their home loss to Arizona last week, but they can still win the division with a victory. The 49ers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win.
By the numbers: The Seahawks are 9-1 straight up and ATS against the 49ers at home in the Pete Carroll era. … The 49ers are 6-9-1 in their last 26 games as favorites.
Pick: 49ers 24, Seahawks 20
More Betting: Follow at reviewjournal.com/betting.
— Ted Sevransky, @teddy_covers, Sportsmemo.com
