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NFL Week 12 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

Updated November 25, 2023 - 11:54 am

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com, @fitz_doug

Chiefs (7-3) at Raiders (5-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -10, 44

Analysis: This will be a much closer game than most people expect. The line is way too high for a division game. The Chiefs can’t score in the second half this season. They rank last in the league in that category and in fourth-quarter points per game as well. The Raiders are 4-1 against the spread in their last five AFC West home games. I also like the under.

Pick: Chiefs 21, Raiders 20

Jaguars (7-3) at Texans (6-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jaguars -1½, 47½

Analysis: This AFC South battle will determine the top spot in the division. The Texans have the slightly better offensive and defensive numbers. Houston is 5-1 ATS as an underdog. The Texans are also 21-5 straight-up in this series and 15-10-1 ATS. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is a lock to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, barring injury.

Pick: Texans 21, Jaguars 17

Buccaneers (4-6) at Colts (5-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -2½, 44½

Analysis: When coming off two consecutive wins, the Colts are 5-12 SU and 3-14 ATS, including 0-9 ATS at home. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS their last seven games against teams coming off a bye week and are 4-0-2 ATS their last six games against AFC South opponents. The wrong team is favored in this game.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, Colts 17

Patriots (2-8) at Giants (3-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Patriots -3½, 34

Analysis: New England coach Bill Belichick hasn’t named his starting QB yet, but it’s probably not Mac Jones, who has been terrible all season. Giants rookie QB Tommy DeVito has looked more like Danny DeVito since taking over for injured Daniel Jones. This game is too ugly to call a side, but it should be low-scoring.

Pick: Giants 17, Patriots 14

Panthers (1-9) at Titans (3-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -3½, 37

Analysis: Carolina is 10-3 ATS its last 13 games against AFC South opponents. Underdogs coming off a loss of 20 points or more (Panthers lost 33-10 to Cowboys last week) are 6-4 ATS this season. The Titans do have some hope in new starting QB Will Levis, who has given the anemic offense some life.

Pick: Titans 20, Panthers 18

Steelers (6-4) at Bengals (5-5)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Steelers -1½, 35½

Analysis: Hard to believe but the Steelers haven’t outgained a single opponent this season. Pittsburgh has a good chance to end that streak against a Cincinnati squad that will be without star QB Joe Burrow, who is out for the season. The Bengals rank last in the NFL in rush attempts per game and 30th in rushing offense with 80.9 yards per game. The Steelers’ defense is mediocre, but T.J. Watt and company should have a field day against Cincinnati’s new starting QB Jake Browning.

Pick: Steelers 24, Bengals 10

Saints (5-5) at Falcons (4-6)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Saints -1½, 41½

Analysis: This game is for the lead in the bad NFC South. The Falcons are 2-8 ATS this season. It’s an ugly game, but I think the Saints have just enough to win.

Pick: Saints 20, Falcons 17

Rams (4-6) at Cardinals (2-9)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -2½, 45½

Analysis: This is another ugly game, but I’ll give a weak endorsement to Arizona with QB Kyler Murray back. Murray brings a new dynamic in his ability to scramble and make plays to keep drives going. The early so-called smart money has apparently come in on Arizona as well.

Pick: Cardinals 24, Rams 17

Browns (7-3) at Broncos (5-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Broncos -1½, 36

Analysis: I hate to get in the way of Denver’s four-game winning streak, but now it faces the league’s top-rated defense in Cleveland. The Browns are allowing an NFL-low 243.3 yards per game and only 18 points per game. The Broncos are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against AFC North opponents. Denver also is on a 2-12-1 ATS slide as a favorite.

Pick: Browns 24, Broncos 17

Bills (6-5) at Eagles (9-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Eagles -3, 48½

Analysis: Laying three points at home seems like a cheap price to me. Before last week’s win over the Jets, the Bills had lost four of their previous six games while going 0-6 ATS. The Eagles are an NFL-best 6-2-2 ATS, and my eye test tells me they’re the superior team.

Pick: Eagles 28, Bills 20

Ravens (8-3) at Chargers (4-6)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Ravens -3, 48

Analysis: The Chargers are a head-scratcher. They have all the talent in the world but can’t seem to win. I think, along with many others, coaching is their problem. Adding fuel to the fire, DE Joey Bosa is out indefinitely. The Ravens lead the league in rushing, with 155.1 yards per game, and rank second in rush attempts per game with 32.3. Unless the Bolts can get it together, it’s going to be a long night for them.

Pick: Ravens 27, Chargers 20

Bears (3-8) at Vikings (6-5)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13, ESPN

Line/total: Vikings -3, 43

Analysis: The Vikings are just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on Monday since 2009, including 0-6 ATS coming off a loss (Minnesota lost 21-20 at Denver on “Sunday Night Football”).

Pick: Bears 21, Vikings 17

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