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NFL Week 13 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

Updated December 2, 2023 - 10:29 pm

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Scott Kellen, SixthSenseSports.com, @SixthSenseNFL

Chargers (4-7) at Patriots (2-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Chargers -5, 39½

Analysis: Nobody wants to bet on the Patriots at this point. Their quarterback play is horrible. They are turning the ball over. Their coaching decisions have been questionable. But who wants the Chargers laying a bunch of points? They are famous for playing close games. Five of their last seven wins as a road favorite have been by three points or less. The Patriots haven’t been home for almost a month. They will play better this week.

Pick: Chargers 22, Patriots 19

Lions (8-3) at Saints (5-6)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Lions -4, 47

Analysis: Detroit comes in with extra rest following its 29-22 Thanksgiving home loss to Green Bay. The Saints, on the other hand, are far from healthy. They could be missing their top three receivers and several key defensive players. That won’t help the Saints’ 23rd-ranked run defense against the Lions’ No. 6 rushing attack. Detroit should be able to run the ball, which will fuel the league’s second-most explosive passing attack.

Pick: Lions 28, Saints 23

Falcons (5-6) at Jets (4-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -2, 33½

Analysis: Atlanta has lost its last three games straight-up as a road favorite. In a common theme this week, can we really lay points with some of these teams? On the flip side, do we really want the awful underdogs? The Jets qualify in a system that plays on home teams coming off a loss of 20 points or more. It’s 193-110-6 against the spread. As bad as the Jets have been, there is slight value to the home underdog. Put them in a two-team 6-point teaser up to +8. That is the play for this game.

Pick: Falcons 18, Jets 17

Cardinals (2-10) at Steelers (7-4)

Time: 1o a.m.

Line/total: Steelers -6½, 41

Analysis: Say what you want about Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, but he’s 15-4-2 ATS as a road underdog in the regular season. The problem for Arizona is its defense. It’s allowed 20 points or more in nine straight games as a road underdog. Pittsburgh hasn’t been priced this high as a home favorite since 2021. The Steelers are also on an 0-6 ATS slide as a home favorite of six points or more. They may have gotten a spark last week with new offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner replacing Matt Canada, however. Pittsburgh totaled a season-high 421 yards against a bad Cincinnati defense. The Steelers also lead the NFL in turnover margin at plus-11. The Cardinals are minus-1.

Pick: Steelers 24, Cardinals 17

Colts (6-5) at Titans (4-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -1, 42½

Analysis: The Titans, for all the problems they’ve had this season, are 4-0 straight-up and ATS at home. They’ve also thrived defending the run. That will be an issue for a Colts team without RB Jonathan Taylor. Tennessee wants to run the ball, and Indianapolis is fourth-worst in the league in allowing rushing touchdowns. Derrick Henry figures to find the end zone this week. Tennessee has been neutral or better in net turnovers at home this season. The Titans will be in this game if that continues.

Pick: Colts 21, Titans 20

Dolphins (8-3) at Commanders (4-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -9½, 49

Analysis: This game pits the best offense in the league in Miami against the Commanders’ third-worst defense, which will have a new play caller this week in coach Ron Rivera. One problem Rivera faces is his team has struggled to pressure opposing QBs while giving up the second-most sacks in the league itself. The Dolphins have been excellent in pass protection and rank fourth in pressure rate on defense. Washington is on a 13-3 under run as a home underdog.

Pick: Dolphins 28, Commanders 19

Broncos (6-5) at Texans (6-5)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Texans -3, 47½

Analysis: Denver has won five straight games despite being an average team from the line of scrimmage. What has fueled the Broncos’ surge is a plus-13 turnover margin during their winning streak. Both teams are well below average on defense, so expect plenty of points and big plays down the field. The Texans are on a 2-11 spread slide as home favorites, including 0-3 ATS this season.

Pick: Texans 27, Broncos 26

Panthers (1-10) at Buccaneers (4-7)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Buccaneers -3½, 36½

Analysis: The Panthers have struggled in just about every way this season. They’re 1-5 ATS as road underdogs, and only one game was closer than seven points. That led to coach Frank Reich getting fired this week. It won’t make this team more talented, but it might bring a new energy. Both clubs struggle to rush the passer, so they each should have a chance to throw the ball around this game.

Pick: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 18

49ers (8-3) at Eagles (10-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: 49ers -3, 47½

Analysis: This game is a scheduling nightmare for the Eagles. The 49ers, looking to avenge their loss in last year’s NFC title game, are coming off a win on Thanksgiving with extra rest. Philadelphia is continuing a brutal stretch that to date has featured games against the Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is 17-1 straight-up his last 18 games in Philadelphia, where his team has scored 28 points or more in all five games this season. San Francisco is the better team, but this line has ballooned a little too high. There’s value on the Eagles.

Pick: Eagles 26, 49ers 24

Browns (7-4) at Rams (5-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Rams -4, 40

Analysis: The Rams, coming off an impressive road victory over Arizona, will face a much stiffer defense in the Browns. Veteran Joe Flacco, 38, will start at QB for Cleveland. The Browns have the league’s top-ranked defense but fourth-worst offense. Cleveland has averaged only 13 points when QB Deshaun Watson hasn’t played this year. The Browns will have to find a way to do better this week.

Pick: Rams 24, Browns 23

Chiefs (8-3) at Packers (5-6)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Chiefs -6, 42½

Analysis: Kansas City has scored at least 23 points in 18 of 19 games as a road favorite of six points or more. The Chiefs are just 9-10 ATS in those games but 18-1 straight-up. Every win was by at least three points. That sounds like a perfect six-point teaser play on Kansas City, which would reduce the line to pick’em. Green Bay is starting to play better, but it has topped 23 points only three times this season.

Pick: Chiefs 30, Packers 18

Bengals (5-6) at Jaguars (8-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13, ESPN

Line/total: Jaguars -8½, 39

Analysis: The Bengals are on a 2-6 straight-up slide when QB Joe Burrow doesn’t play. They’ve scored 17 points or less in six of those eight games. That doesn’t bode well for a defense that is at the bottom of the league this season. Jacksonville isn’t the most reliable favorite, but it has scored 34 and 37 points in two of its last three home games. This is a great game to tease Jacksonville to -2½ or less with the Chiefs.

Pick: Jaguars 24, Bengals 15

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