Sharp money moves Lions-Ravens line, books ‘desperately need’ total
Sharp money on the Lions has caused the line to drop from as high as Ravens -6½ to as low as -4 on “Monday Night Football.”
But the bigger concern for bookmakers is the total, which is the highest on the board in NFL Week 3 and ranged from 53 at some sportsbooks Sunday night to as high as 54 at the South Point and STN Sports.
“We’re going to need that game under big time,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “The ticket count is over 75 percent toward the over. There’s no question the total might be bigger than the side itself.”
Boomer’s Sportsbook also will be rooting for the under.
“Anytime there’s a total of 53, which is rarefied air in that league, you know we’re going to need under for something because every parlay will have over,” Boomer’s director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. “Every regular Joe will have over in that game and I can’t blame them. They want to tune in and see fireworks.”
Baltimore is 2-0 to the over this season, losing 41-40 to the Bills in Week 1 and beating the Browns 41-17 in Week 2. Detroit went under in a 27-13 loss to the Packers in their opener before flying over the total in a 52-21 blowout win over the Bears last week.
“We desperately need a low-scoring game, as the Ravens and Bills already accounted for the biggest single game win for the customers in the past two years (non-Super Bowl),” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel said in an email. “With the popularity of same-game parlays, a similar score line Monday night would be significant for the customer base.”
Baltimore is on a 16-5 over run while Detroit is on a 6-2 over uptick.
The Lions have covered 10 of their last 12 on the road, and the Ravens are on a 6-2 cover run.
While sharp bettors have backed Detroit, books expect to need the Lions because the betting public is backing Baltimore.
“Some very respected accounts played Detroit at +6½ and +6 and now we’re all the way down to 4½,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “There is definitely respected money there. … I do think we’ll end up needing Detroit.”
The Ravens account for 62 percent of the spread tickets at STN Sports, though the line has dropped, partly because of sharp money on the Lions.
“We opened the game 6 and there was an initial push up as high as 6½ but now it’s come down to 5 and it looks like it can come down even more,” Esposito said. “There has been a little bit of sharp money on Detroit. There’s some injuries in the trenches and on defense for the Ravens. I think that’s part of it. And both these teams are really good.
“Getting points sometimes in this league when there’s two good teams is a big difference maker. I think we might still be Lions fans because everything from (Sunday) will be dumping into that game.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
