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Sportsbooks adjust Super Bowl odds again after flurry of moves

Updated March 22, 2022 - 6:38 am

Another day, another reshuffling of the Super Bowl odds at Las Vegas sportsbooks.

For the fifth time in less than two weeks, books adjusted their NFL futures markets Monday after the Colts acquired quarterback Matt Ryan from the Falcons.

“We’ve been raising and lowering teams across the board in pro football,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I can’t remember so much movement. It’s crazy.”

The Super Bowl shuffle started March 8 when the Broncos acquired quarterback Russell Wilson from the Seahawks and QB Aaron Rodgers returned to the Packers, who emerged as 7-1 co-favorites with the Bills at Circa Sports and the Westgate SuperBook to win it all.

It continued March 13 when Tom Brady announced he was coming out of retirement to return to the Buccaneers, now the clear 7-1 favorite at Circa and the SuperBook to win the Super Bowl.

After the Raiders acquired wide receiver Davante Adams in Thursday’s trade with the Packers, Green Bay’s odds climbed to 10-1.

The Raiders dropped from 35-1 to 25-1 at Station Casinos and stayed at 60-1 at the SuperBook, which had lowered the Raiders from 80-1 after taking some bets on them before the Adams deal was announced.

Browns, Colts drop

There was another shake-up in Super Bowl odds Friday after the Browns acquired quarterback Deshaun Watson from the Texans.

The Browns were 60-1 at the SuperBook when Watson reportedly rejected them. But the book slashed Cleveland’s odds to 18-1 after the trade.

The SuperBook didn’t plan on adjusting the Colts’ odds Monday after they landed Ryan. But it did so after a bettor wagered $5,400 to win $81,000 on Indianapolis to win the AFC at 15-1 odds.

The book lowered the Colts from 30-1 to 25-1 to win the Super Bowl and from 15-1 to 12-1 to win the conference. It raised the Patriots from 30-1 to 40-1 to win the Super Bowl.

“It changes by the second,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “When a team gets lowered, someone else needs to get raised back up.”

AFC loaded

Led by the Bills and Chiefs at 8-1, there are now nine teams in the AFC with odds of 25-1 or less to win the Super Bowl.

“That’s just an astounding number,” Salmons said. “It’s just ridiculous how many good teams there are in the AFC.”

The Bills and Chiefs are 4-1 co-favorites to win the AFC, followed by the Browns and Chargers at 9-1, the Broncos and Bengals at 10-1, and the Colts, Titans and Ravens at 12-1. The Patriots are 20-1 and the Raiders 30-1.

Of all the recent moves, Salmons said the Browns were the biggest winners.

“It’s not even close if Deshaun Watson is allowed to play football from day one. He’s a top-five quarterback,” he said. “Before the dust settles, Cleveland could be the favorite to win the AFC. They have that much talent now. The big wild card right now is what his suspension is going to be.”

NFL MVP

Eight of the top 13 MVP favorites at the SuperBook are AFC quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are the 7-1 co-favorites, followed by Brady at 8-1, and Rodgers, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert at 10-1.

Wilson and Watson are tied at 16-1 with Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott. Lamar Jackson is 20-1 and Derek Carr 40-1.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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