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Would Raiders be better off losing their final 4 games?

Updated December 13, 2023 - 7:10 pm

The Raiders lost a game Sunday during which they failed to score. Yet they still walked away from Week 14 as big winners.

In a matter of speaking, of course.

The 3-0 loss to the Vikings and wins by the Giants and Titans on Monday night vaulted the 5-8 Raiders from the 10th spot in April’s draft to No. 6.

In one leap, they put themselves in position to land one of the top quarterback prospects in what is shaping up as one of the best QB drafts in years. And with four games left — beginning against the Chargers on “Thursday Night Football” at Allegiant Stadium — they find themselves just two games off the pace to land the second or third pick.

No, this isn’t a call for the Raiders to go into full tank mode. But there is an argument to be made that losing their final four games is the best thing they can do for the long-term health of the franchise.

The last time the Raiders had a legitimate MVP candidate at quarterback was in the early 2000s. Under Rich Gannon from 1999 to 2002, they won three division titles, advanced to two conference championship games and one Super Bowl.

It’s essentially been a mess at that position since, with only Derek Carr providing a stabilizing force from 2014 to 2022. But even the Carr years seemed a bit inflated because they were measured against a 10-year stretch in which the Raiders played the likes of Kerry Collins, Andrew Walter, Jason Campbell and JaMarcus Russell.

Carr was better than those cast of characters, but his midlevel ceiling was felt every time the Raiders crossed paths with upper-echelon teams, and his 63-79 record as their starter reflected his limitations.

The Raiders might finally find themselves in a position to secure what they have lacked for more than 20 years: A difference-making quarterback they can build their franchise around.

If the Raiders end up picking sixth, they could wait to see if Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels of Louisiana State falls to them. The 6-foot-4-inch, 185-pound Daniels threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns against four interceptions this season, and ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns.

But Daniels is such a hot commodity that he might be gone by the time the Raiders pick at No. 6. That’s why losses in their final four games — after the Chargers, they travel to Kansas City and Indianapolis before closing the season against Denver at Allegiant — wouldn’t be the worst way to end the season.

The consensus top two quarterbacks in the draft are Southern California’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and for the Raiders to have any chance to select either, they would have to finish 5-12.

Williams was the surefire No. 1 overall pick at the start of the season, but he and the Trojans didn’t play as well this season as they did in 2022. That could mean Drake overtaking him.

Here’s where it gets interesting. The Bears have their first-round pick (currently No. 5) and the Panthers’ pick (No. 1) after a trade before the 2023 draft that saw Carolina take quarterback Bryce Young.

One of those selections could be up to trade discussions — most likely the latter — but if the Bears are convinced Justin Fields is their long-term quarterback, that could mean they would be open for business at No. 1.

If so, the Raiders must do whatever is necessary to trade for the top pick.

The time is right for several reasons. Their defense ranks ninth in points allowed, and almost all of their key players are under contractual control for multiple seasons. In years past, the Raiders had so many holes to fill on defense that they couldn’t afford to trade the draft assets needed to draft a top quarterback prospect.

Meanwhile, wide receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, left tackle Kolton Miller and tight end Michael Mayer form an excellent foundation for the offense. Yes, they need to improve the offensive line, and the contract status of Josh Jacobs is uncertain, but the Raiders’ roster is strong enough to absorb the cost needed to move up in the draft.

Plus, with a rookie quarterback, the Raiders will have more financial flexibility to fill other roster needs.

They won’t be playing for a playoff spot, but the rest of the season will certainly be interesting for the Raiders and their fans.

Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on X.

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