NFL betting breakdown: Week 9
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Doug Fitz, @fitz_doug, Systemplays.com
Texans (1-7) at Dolphins (1-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Dolphins -5½, 46½
Analysis: This is an ugly matchup of 1-7 teams that will most likely be the lowest-bet game of the week. The Texans have lost seven straight since a season-opening win over the Jaguars. The Dolphins have lost seven straight since a season-opening win over the Patriots. I don’t think it matters if Houston starts veteran Tyrod Taylor or rookie Davis Mills at quarterback. I’ll recommend taking the under in this one rather than being forced to take a side.
By the numbers: The Dolphins and Texans each average less than five yards per play on offense. … Houston is on an 8-2 under run on the road when on a losing streak of four games or more.
Pick: Dolphins 21, Texans 17
Broncos (4-4) at Cowboys (6-1)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Cowboys -9½, 49½
Analysis: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is a go after being held out last week with a calf injury. Denver coach Vic Fangio shows time and time again that he’s clueless with his in-game play calling and clock management. Dallas should be able to name the score but the number is too high for me to get involved.
By the numbers: Denver is 7-0 ATS playing an opponent, like Dallas, that’s coming off a Sunday night game. … The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS after a game in which they had a turnover margin of -2 or worse.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Broncos 24
Vikings (3-4) at Ravens (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -6, 50
Analysis: The Ravens are coming off their bye week, which gave them time to recover from their 41-17 blowout loss at home to the Bengals two weeks ago. This is a plus for Baltimore facing the Vikings, who are coming off a disappointing home loss to Dallas in a game where they had plenty of chances to win. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson should have a field day against the weak Minnesota defense.
By the numbers: Baltimore’s rushing attack ranks third in the league with an average of 149.4 yards per game. … The Vikings’ rushing defense ranks 27th in the NFL, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.
Pick: Ravens 35, Vikings 17
Patriots (4-4) at Panthers (4-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Patriots -3½, 41
Analysis: This is a very tough game to call. The Carolina quarterback situation is up in the air, with Sam Darnold questionable with a concussion and shoulder injury. If Darnold doesn’t play, the Panthers will start P.J. Walker, who completed 3 of 14 passes for 33 yards in a 25-3 loss to the Giants in Week 7. The Patriots have won two games in a row but I’m not sure they’re justified in being a road favorite. I’ll pass on this one.
By the numbers: Carolina is 4-0-3 ATS in its last seven games vs. AFC East teams. … New England is on a 12-3 under streak in a revenge spot.
Pick: Panthers 21, Patriots 20
Bills (5-2) at Jaguars (1-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -14½, 48½
Analysis: There is absolutely nothing positive I can say about the Jaguars. They are, without question, a very bad and noncompetitive team. Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league. But laying two touchdowns on the road is something I will never do, based on principle above anything else. The Bills should be able to name the score. But Buffalo might allow a late backdoor cover because it won’t care as it’ll probably be cruising near the end.
By the numbers: The Jaguars allow an average of 278.1 passing yards per game and 8.6 passing yards per attempt. … The Bills average 276.3 passing ypg and 7.1 passing ypa.
Pick: Bills 38, Jaguars 10
Browns (4-4) at Bengals (5-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bengals -2½, 47
Analysis: Another interesting matchup but a tough game to handicap. Both teams are coming off losses in games they were supposed to win. Especially the Bengals, who suffered the biggest upset of the season in losing to the lowly Jets. I’ll give a weak endorsement to Cincinnati, which should be more focused after its embarrassing loss. But the under looks like a much safer alternative.
By the numbers: The Browns and Bengals are each 4-4 ATS. … Over the last 10 years, Cleveland is 10-22-1 ATS in November. … The Browns were held to 306 yards of offense in last week’s 15-10 loss to the Steelers.
Pick: Bengals 20, Browns 17
Raiders (5-2) at Giants (2-6)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Raiders -3, 46½
Analysis: The tragic fatal car crash involving former Raiders wide receiver Henry Ruggs could be a huge distraction. But many thought Jon Gruden’s abrupt resignation as Raiders coach would be, too, and Las Vegas proved that was not the case in winning and covering its last two games. Tough to say. There are too many question marks, so I’ll pass.
By the numbers: The Raiders are 2-8 ATS vs. opponents, like the Giants, who are playing their final game before their bye week. … New York is on a 6-0-1 under streak at home.
Pick: Raiders 27, Giants 21
Falcons (3-4) at Saints (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Saints -6, 41½
Analysis: All the statistics point to an easy Saints win. But this is a divisional rivalry and New Orleans’ quarterback position is in flux with Trevor Siemian replacing injured Jameis Winston at starter over Taysom Hill. So I’ll grab the points with Atlanta.
By the numbers: The Falcons are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. NFC opponents. … The Saints are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against defenses that yield more than 6.75 yards per pass attempt.
Pick: Saints 28, Falcons 24
Chargers (4-3) at Eagles (3-5)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Chargers -1½, 49½
Analysis: The Chargers have certainly cooled off after their 4-1 start, losing their last two games in blowout fashion at Baltimore followed by a home loss to the Patriots. The Eagles always seem to be competitive and are coming off a 44-6 win over the Lions. I’ll take Philadelphia in a close contest despite situational edges favoring Los Angeles.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. NFC East teams. … The Eagles are on a 20-5 under run at home after a straight up conference win.
Pick: Eagles 25, Chargers 23
Packers (7-1) at Chiefs (4-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Chiefs -7, 48
Analysis: The obvious take is that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is not playing because of a positive COVID test. But this line has been overadjusted. I see it time and time again. The public and the oddsmakers always inflate the number to the point that you can get great value on the team with the major player out. That is the case here. Green Bay backup QB Jordan Love could be good or he could be bad. But what I think most people are forgetting is that he’s opposing a horrible Chiefs’ defense that ranks last in the league in yards per play allowed. Give me an extra seven points or so of value all day long.
By the numbers: After straight up wins of three points or less, Green Bay is 7-0 ATS and Kansas City is 2-8 ATS. … The Packers have won and covered seven straight games overall.
Pick: Packers 28, Chiefs 24
Cardinals (7-1) at 49ers (3-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: 49ers -2½, 44½
Analysis: Arizona QB Kyler Murray is questionable because of an ankle injury. His running ability is key to the Cardinals. If he plays, his mobility could be limited. When these teams met earlier this year, San Francisco lost 17-10 but outgained Arizona. I like the 49ers in a low-scoring contest.
By the numbers: San Francisco is on a 13-2 under run at home against teams averaging more than 7.5 yards per pass attempt. … The 49ers are on a 1-7 ATS slide at home.
Pick: 49ers 23, Cardinals 20
Titans (6-2) at Rams (7-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Rams -7, 53
Analysis: Similar to the Packers-Chiefs point spread, I believe this number is an overreaction to Tennessee running back Derrick Henry being out. The Titans are still a very good team and I think they can still keep this game closer than many expect. Look for a lot more passing attempts by Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill, which will make the over an enticing play.
By the numbers: The Rams are riding a 16-2 over streak against AFC South opponents and have gone over in seven of their last nine games overall. … The Titans have a 28-10 over mark since Tannehill took over as QB. … Tennessee is on a 7-2 ATS run as an underdog.
Pick: Rams 38, Titans 34
Bears (3-5) at Steelers (4-3)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Steelers -6½, 38½
Analysis: This is another tough game to pick a side. But the under looks tempting as both teams struggle to score. Chicago ranks 31st in the league in scoring, averaging a paltry 15.4 points per game. Pittsburgh ranks 26th with 18.9 ppg.
By the numbers: The Steelers are 25th in the league in yards per play (5.2) and the Bears are dead last in yards per play (4.4). … Chicago also ranks last in the league in passing yards with 127 per game. … Pittsburgh has a 1-5-1 under record this season and the Bears have a 2-6 under mark.
Pick: Steelers 21, Bears 17
