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Swift action: Chiefs-Raiders line, total move; Kelce props posted

The Chiefs have won the last five meetings with the Raiders by an average of 17.8 points, and their last seven games have averaged a total of 57.4 points.

Despite those trends, the early betting action on Sunday’s matchup between the AFC West rivals at Allegiant Stadium was on the Raiders and under, causing the line to dip to Chiefs -9 and 43.

But Kansas City shot up to a consensus 10-point favorite Friday afternoon and the consensus total ticked up to 43½ and as high as 44 at Station Casinos. The Raiders are 4-1 on the money line at Stations.

Star Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby was listed as doubtful for the game Friday.

“The game opened at 9½ and was quickly bet down to 9. That was a product of sharp play on the Raiders,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “But the public is more so on the Chiefs. My guess is we’re going to need the Raiders.”

The Raiders have gone under in four straight games and eight of their last nine, and they have the NFL’s best under record at 9-2. The Chiefs are on a 5-0-1 under run and have a 7-2-1 under mark this season.

“This Raiders team really doesn’t generate much offense, and the Chiefs’ offense is not nearly as explosive as they have been in the past,” Esposito said. “It’s a hard Chiefs team to gauge. They’re winning ugly. Offensively, they don’t look like the same juggernaut.”

Kansas City (7-3, 6-4 against the spread) is third in the league in scoring defense, allowing a paltry 16.4 points per game. But it’s only 14th in the league in scoring offense with 22.5 ppg.

In a Super Bowl rematch on “Monday Night Football,” the Chiefs squandered a 17-7 halftime lead en route to a 21-17 home loss to the Eagles. Kansas City has lost two of its last three games while going 1-2 ATS.

But the Chiefs, under coach Andy Reid, lead the league with a 17-3 record after a loss since 2018 and are 11-1 in that spot since 2020.

“Andy Reid is always good after a loss,” Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “It’s a tough spot, but I think the Raiders can get a cover.”

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw also leans to the Raiders (5-6, 6-5 ATS), who have won two of three games under interim coach Antonio Pierce while going 3-0 ATS after covering in last week’s 20-13 loss to the Dolphins as 14-point underdogs.

“The Raiders have been playing a lot better,” Whitelaw said. “The number looks slightly high to me, but the Chiefs are coming off a loss and are going to be very focused.”

BetMGM needed the Chiefs as of late Friday afternoon, when they were still favored by 9½ at the sportsbook.

“The Raiders are a small loser for us now,” MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said in a text message. “The money is about 7-1 in favor of the Raiders.”

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is -224 at Caesars Sportsbook to throw under 2½ touchdown passes (over pays +159). Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell is -234 to throw over ½ TD passes (under pays +165).

Mahomes total passing yards is 264½ (o-137), while O’Connell’s is 201½ (u-129).

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is -167 to score a TD and +380 to score the game’s first TD. His total receptions is 6½, and his receiving yards prop is 69½ (u-119).

Kelce, who is dating singer Taylor Swift, averages 108 receiving yards this season in four games she has attended. Without her present, his average is 41.8.

Swift won’t be at the game. She’s playing a concert Sunday in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.

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