Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the reigning Super Bowl MVP, and he just agreed to a 10-year contract extension that could be worth up to $503 million.
Now bettors can consider this question: How many championships will Kansas City win over the next decade-plus?
The Westgate set the line at 1½ (over -125) on Wednesday on a prop on how many Super Bowls the Chiefs will win over the course of Mahomes’ extension. The under pays +105.
Over bettors will be paid as soon as the Chiefs win two titles, sportsbook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said. Under bettors will have to be in for the long haul, as the timeline on the prop runs through the completion of the 2031-32 season.
“So many things can change over time,” Sherman said. “Who knows if Mahomes will play out the duration of the contract? (Under bettors) just have to wait it out.”
The language of the prop is clear. It is based on how many Super Bowls the Chiefs win, whether Mahomes is involved or not. If he suffers a career-ending injury, joins another team or retires, over bettors still win if Kansas City claims two or more titles over the time period.
Sherman said he expected mostly money on the over from bettors who see probably the best quarterback in the NFL with the prime of his career still ahead of him at age 24. But there are no guarantees, as other quarterbacks once considered the best in the league can attest, such as Aaron Rodgers (one Super Bowl) and Dan Marino (none).
The Westgate considered setting the line at 2½, but thought that would attract too much under money from sharp bettors, Sherman said. Setting the line at one half “would have been too short,” Sherman said.
Kansas City is the 5-1 co-favorite with Baltimore to win this season’s Super Bowl.
The Westgate has posted more props in recent years that cover a long time frame. The sportsbook has props posted on how many career majors Tiger Woods will have by the end of 2025 (numbers from 15½ to 18½ are available at various prices). A prop on how many career majors Brooks Koepka will win by May 2040 is posted at 7½ (under -130).
Woods has 15 majors now, and Koepka has four.
In all of these props, bettors usually take the over, Sherman said.
“People generally like to root for something to happen,” he said.